Texas: General Elections 2006

Well, its official, Edwards has proven that his winning the election in 2004 was not a fluke. He has proven himself a strong enough candidate to overcome the advantage given to the Republicans by the infamous gerrymandering. In fact, this year’s race wasn’t even close. Republicans all but conceded the race and withdrew funds around a month ago, leaving the man they once called “on of their most promising prospects” to finish out the election on his own. Edwards won by a whopping 18 points (58% to 40% according to CNN), which certainly isn’t as close as the Republicans thought it would be a few months ago. So it seems President Bush’s ranch will remain painted blue for at least another two years.

by Bryan Comer

In Texas’ 23rd district, the incumbent Henry Bonilla failed to receive 50% of the vote.  The second most vote-getter was Ciro Rodriguez.  Therefore, as I predicted, there will be a run-off election on December 7, 2006.

I have no doubt that Bonilla will win the district, but at least he’s getting a run for his money.

The bad news just keeps pouring in for Van Taylor. It appears his finances are running dry as he had to loan his campaign $200,000 of his own money. This comes after the national Republican committee decided to withdraw funds for a television advertising campaign. Reports stated that the NRCC had been planning to contribute $1.5 million in ads to Taylor’s campaign. The funds were withdrawn a week after the NRCC had conducted a poll, which most likely means they are conceding the race.

Taylor, who has already loaned his campaign $300,000, has raised nearly $2 million so far but had only $102,500 cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

Edwards, 54, has raised more than $2.8 million and had more than $1.1 million cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to FEC reports.

Source:Waco Tribune-Herald

Taylor of course denies that he’s having financial and polling problems, and instead insists that he has more than enough funds to finish the race. He also claims his internal polls show the race is still very tight, but does not release any numbers. That same article also points out the Edwards recently gained the endorsement of several Mayors in Johnson county, giving him yet another boost.

Continuing with the good news for Edwards, CQ Politics upgraded TX17 from “Leans Democratic” to “Democratic Favored.” Also, in what is good news in a weird way, the DCCC has also pulled funding from the campaign, indicating that they too believe that the race is a sure thing.

And finally, while it seems like a pointless endeavour at this point, the second debate was held between the two candidates.  The two major issues were the war in Iraq and stem cell research.  Both are committed to the war, but Edwards feels the Iraqi government needs to step up and take responsibility immediately.  Taylor, on the other hand, feels this view neglects the sacrifice the Iraqi’s have endured in their path to becoming a democratic nation.  Taylor is against all forms of embryonic stem cell research because he feels that human lives are being destroyed.  Edwards claims that supporting the funding is actually a pro-life position because of the huge number of lives that could be saved.  Beyond those two issues was just the standard bickering between the two that has become the norm.

The next, and probably final debate will be on Halloween.  Taylor needs nothing short of a miracle to bring him back into the race at this point.

Bush has made a stop in Sugar Land to stump for Sekula-Gibbs.  Personally, I HATE when he plays the Texas card to get votes:

“I always feel better when I’m in Texas,” Bush said to the crowd packed into a hangar at the Sugar Land airport, before urging them to take the extra steps necessary to vote for Sekula-Gibbs.

(Source: Houston Chronicle, 10/30/06)

News flash: I feel better when you’re in Texas, too.  It means you’re not in the White House.  But anyways.  (puts Bush dislike back in the box)  The article makes little jokes here and there about the write-in process, but it’s still calling the race a close one (which I’m not going to argue with).  Surprisingly, it sounds pessimistic, and insinuates that (gasp) Republicans might lose the seat.  Lampson just kind of chilled during this whole affair, with his campaign offering the only acknowledgment that the president was in town:

Lampson campaign manager Mike Malaise issued a statement saying Bush came to town “to try and stir up the base for one of our opponents because she is such a hard sell to that base.”

Uhhhhhhh.  Yes, but isn’t there a better way to put that?  Your base is pretty much guaranteed (if there is such a thing as a Democratic base in Texas) and you’re pulling votes from the Reps.  Wouldn’t it be better to try and appeal to the Republicans instead of coming up with some lame statement about how the representative is a hard sell to the base?  You’re leaving the door wide open for the interpretation that while the candidate may be a shaky fit, TX-22 is still heart-and-soul Republican and will elect on regardless.  Come on, people!  Drink more coffee!

by Bryan Comer

So Ricky decided to post segments of a televised debate on his website. Now, if I was him, I’d make myself look good… but ya know, that’s just me.

Here’s the link by the way: http://rickbolanosfortexas.com/

So first, the moderator refers to him as republican. That’s excellent for a democratic candidate don’t you think?

Anyways, he starts off OK. On Iraq, he says that we must stand down in order for Iraqi’s to stand up. If we don’t stand down they have no incentive to risk their lives to secure their country. He does say that Iraqi’s should be paying the ultimate price for their freedom, not Americans. That probably goes over well in his district.

He attempts to link incumbant Henry Bonilla to the White House. He says that Bonills cares about “corporate wealth” instead of “commonwealth.” And that we need a “transparent government” that everyone can see what’s going on behind the scenes. He even goes as far to claim that appealing to interest group pressures is the same as “prostitution of our nation to the highest bidder.”

Doing OK so far, maybe a little risque with the prostitution theme, but ok.

Now’s where things get interesting. Bolanos is asked a question regarding illegal immigration; given that the 23rd district is a border district. Here’s how he explains the problem:

“My Dad used to tell me that, if you give a donkey a carrot and let him taste it, and then put the donkey’s head toward a carrot – hang the carrot right in front of it, the donkey will start running after that carrot because it has that desire to get that carrot.”

He equates the carrot to jobs in the U.S. and, by default, defines the donkey as Mexicans.

I’m shaking my head right now…

Why would you equate Mexican’s to donkeys? Why, why, why? The 23rd is 55% Hispanic. This is a very big mistake. What’s better, is that his solution to the “donkey problem” is getting rid of jobs in the U.S. so that people from Mexico wouldn’t want to come here anymore. He wants to “take away the carrot.”

Does anyone think he won over his district? Me neither.

Well, its been just over a week since the two candidates held their first debate. Both had expressed their interest in discussing immigration issues:

Top issue: Immigration

Both candidates eagerly await the chance to discuss illegal immigration as Taylor tries to portray Edwards as “weak” on the issue, and Edwards attempts to trumpet what he calls more than a decade of “clear, consistent” support for “strong” immigration reform.

~ Waco Tribune-Herald 10/07/06

The issues actually discussed during the the debate: negative campaigning and unpaid taxes, of course. Leading up to and during the debate, Edwards repeatedly asked Taylor to pledge to show only positive ads for the remainder of the campaign. Taylor declined, and I’ll let him explain his reasons:

Taylor said that tactic would clearly benefit the incumbent, and refused, saying Edwards is acting like a “school-yard bully” with years of ordering others around.

Taylor’s campaign manager, Casey Phillips, likens Taylor’s stance to “when a little kid refuses to give up his lunch money and fights back.”

~ Waco Tribune-Herald 10/07/06

I guess there was an issue discussed during the debate then: Taylor is against school-yard bullies.

The next bombshell was dropped by Taylor when he claimed that Edwards was on the board of a seafood company that owed the state of Texas over $6000 in unpaid taxes. The company was started in 1979 by Chet’s brother, and went out of business back in 1985. Yes, that’s right, Taylor dug through 27 years of financial records to find this little tidbit. Now that’s dedication, or maybe its desperation. One of the two. Anyway, a few days later, a better explanation of what happened was offered by Edwards. When the company closed in 1985, his brother failed to properly close the business with respect to the government. As a result, it had been accumulating a $68 franchise tax plus interest each year. Furthermore, he stated that Taylor had grossly overstated the amount owed and that he in fact only owed a little over $2000. He also claimed that his brother would pay off the amount by the end of the week. Source:Waco Tribune-Herald 10/10/06

The candidates did accidentally slip up and cover a few real issues. Both claimed the other is weak on illegal immigration. Edwards attacked Taylor for not wanting to raise minimum wage. Taylor attacked Edwards for fighting against prayer in schools. To summarize their respective positions:

Edwards said he has fought to keep open the Waco Veterans Affairs Hospital, secured funding for businesses and parks throughout the district and will keep fighting for homeland security, Social Security and stopping illegal immigration.

Taylor said he represents the values of central Texans: lower taxes, less government spending, traditional families values, gun rights and being tough on illegal immigration. He urged voters to send the first Iraq war veteran to Congress.

~Waco Tribune-Herald 10/15/06

Taylor has also been receiving a steady stream of bad news in the general campaign. Democrats are reporting that Edwards has $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Taylor’s $102,500. Also, in contrast to the last three years, the NRA has decided not to endorse either candidate. In the past it has supported the Republican challenger to Edwards.

The final blow to Taylor has been the publication of two polls. First, Edwards published parts of his own internal polling that gave him a 54% to 33% lead over Taylor. Taylor claims the poll is biased and that his internal polls show the gap to be much closer, yet he declined to release the actual numbers. Finally, an RT Strategies poll from October 10 gives a 55% to 38% lead to Edwards.

Things aren’t looking good for Taylor, and time is running out. There are more debates scheduled following the October 23 early voting.

I could just copy the post I wrote on this a few weeks ago almost word for word, since nothing has changed: CQ has D22 “leaning Democrat,” TradeSports still has Dems in the lead, and since I actually remembered to check the Cook Political Report, they’re forecasting the district to go Democrat (“lean Democratic” is the technical term). The only source that did switch was the Times, who now slate TX-22 as “leaning Democratic.” Yay for Nick Lampson? Heh heh heh. At least that’s one less seat to get while Dems try to take back the House.