Texas: General Elections 2006

by Bryan Comer

A survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on Sept. 21 tracked the issues concerning rural voters in competitive congressional districts throughout the country including Texas’ 23rd.(http://www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php?ID=1790)

Here’s what they found:

• Democrats and Republicans split rural voters evenly
• Key issues will be:
  • The War in Iraq
  • The Economy
  • The War on Terror
  • National Security
• Approx. 3/4 of rural voters know someone who is or has served in Iraq
• A majority favor a plan to pull out of Iraq within the coming year
• Dems have advantage on the issue of the War in Iraq
• Republicans have advantage on the issue of the War on Terror

Now. let’s see what our two leading candidates think about a few of the issues important to rural voters.

The War in Iraq:

Bonilla: essentially, stay the course. The US has an obligation to quell the threat of terrorism in the Middle East. (consistent with most other republican party members and the president)

http://bonilla.house.gov/

Rodriguez: it doesn’t say anything about it on his website but he did vote NO in 2002 on authorizing military action in Iraq, but YES in 2004 to remove Saddam and send in troops. (Not making this a key focus may hurt him, this is where he could have picked up some ground.)

http://www.ontheissues.org/TX/Ciro_Rodriguez.htm#War_+_Peace

The Economy:

Bonilla:  Bonilla emphasizes the importance of small business, “Small business is the backbone of our communities, the brain of our nation’s economy and the heart of American culture” (Sounds alot like a push for privatization)

Rodriguez:  Rodriguez is focusing on commerce along the border (which makes sense given the districts location… on the border). He supports a federal program called the Community Adjustment and Investment Program (CAIP) which is a loan program to help communities along the border struggling with the trade impacts of NAFTA. This program creates “jobs and stuff” is basically what Rodriguez is pushing. (Sounds a lot like expansion of federal government but does appeal to the unemployed which tend to be dems)

The War on Terror:

Bonilla: He thinks that we should “coordinate and focus our government-wide efforts to combat terrorism.” This essentially means that we should continue to provide support financially and militarily to persue terrorists.

Rodriguez: (I’m shaking my head right now) Why don’t you put this stuff on your website Ciro??? Anyways, he’s a democrat so I’ll assume that he wants to “cut and run” as the republicans would say.

National Security:

Bonilla: He says that, “The tragic attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, ongoing terrorist attacks in the Middle East and periodic terrorist alerts here at home have forever changed the way Americans view their security. No longer can anyone claim that instability and violence in other parts of the world have no effect on us.” So he wants to make sure we stay safe at home by furthering our efforts in Iraq.

Rodriguez: Since this is such an important issue I’m sure Ciro Rodriguez will have an opinion. Damn, nope, he doesn’t even mention it.

Allright, I’ve had about enough of this. Rodriguez isn’t getting a whole lot of rural voters. Bonilla at least deals with all of these issues on his website. I think it’s safe to assume that Bonilla will pull rural voters and Rodriguez will either have to start dealing with the “key issues” or, well… give up. The war in Iraq is a huge issue, it should be a focus for any candidate who actually wants to win.

I’m calling it right now, Bonilla is the overall winner of this district in a special election on December 7th.

Well here we go again. Another Republican, John Carter from the 31st District, is refusing to debate his Democratic opposition. Carter says that his challenger Mary Beth Harrell hasn’t “earned the right to debate him.” Mary Beth took the bold approach and posted an abundant of her beliefs on the internet to help get her noticed. She also went as far as to attack her opposition through doing so. She states that she wants the military to leave Iraq, but doesn’t want to shame her son (fighting) or husband (veteran). She feels a sense of military self righteousness, however, and uses Carter’s lack of military service as a downside to his political career. Mary Beth points out that Carter voted with Tom DeLay 98% of the time! Texas Republicans have been known to think the same, and the only way I would truly find this percentage outrageous would be if she somehow accumulated something over 100%…that would surely mean Carter was unfit to represent his constituents….

When Mary Beth gets into the oil crisis she pulls out the big guns again. She goes on the usual rant about how prices are too high, something needs to be done and then WHAM! Carter owns between 1 and 5 million dollars in oil stock! Something that’s free to be traded and purchased should surely incriminate this man! OK maybe she’s trying a bit hard on this one, but she does pose a good point. As these oil companies are getting richer and richer so is Carter. It’s not his fault that he’s found a way to insure his financial security, but he can be blamed for maybe not trying the absolute HARDEST to lower their profits and help out average America.

Mary Beth then gets in to economics. She states that the national debt is making American weaker as a nation and is quick to point out that Carter voted 5 times to raise the deficit ceiling. Uh oh…here it is again…Carter voted with Tom DeLay 98% of the time!! She must really think she’s on to something here…

As for immigration Mary Beth supports guest worker programs and calls out Carter for initially supporting them and then retracting his support. She says that she is against amnesty programs and believes that it should be made too expensive for Americans to hire illegal immigrants so they’ll hire Americans instead. Oh my word…here it is again…Carter voted with Tom DeLay 98% of the time!!! The third time MUST be the charm! Is it really necessary to mention this after stating every single issue?!

John Carter has quite a bit going for him still. Despite all of Mary Beth’s accusations (or at least one, persistently) John has no need to be worried in this upcoming election. He received almost 6 times as much money as Mary Beth did, and retains 10 times as much on hand still. Should Mary Beth’s accusations achieve a footing it is sure that John has the resources to fight back.

The 31st District plays out similarly to other rural Texas districts. Primarily white middle class citizens looking for conservative representation inhabit the district. John is very quick to point out that he is a lifelong Texan and has been married for 35 years while raising 4 children “in a home centered on Christian beliefs and strong Texas Values.” That always puts a good spin on his image. John may only have 1 term under his belt but looks secure to hold his seat after being named one of the “Top Five Freshmen” by a leading capitol hill newspaper. Boy, does John know how to hit it home with his beliefs.

“John Carter pulls no punches when it comes to protecting our conservative values. These are some of his accomplishments:
Supported and co-sponsored the ban on partial-birth abortions.
Introduced legislation to protect the use of God in our pledge and on our currency.
Fought to protect our Second Amendment right to own and bear arms.
Worked to pass a constitutional amendment to end any and all desecration of our flag.
This past February, National Journal, a highly regarded bi-partisan magazine, rated John Carter as the 9th most conservative member of the House of Representatives. His voting record shows he’s a true conservative.”

That excerpt from www.CarterForCongress.com is listed under his “issues” section…you know…the place where Mary Beth spent most of her time restating John’s voting habits in relation to Tom DeLay’s.

It seems as if John Carter has everything necessary to retain his seat in Congress this November, but if something were to change I will certainly be here to sum it up.

Sources:

NewYorkTimes.com

CarterForCongress.com

MaryBethHarrellForCongress.com

It’s been a quiet week for the most part; only two major issues have cropped up. As with every election, this one too has descended into a battle of negative ads and mudslinging. Both sides started off taking the moral high ground with Edwards showing how much work he has done for the district and Taylor touting his military record. Needless to say, that strategy didn’t last long.

With one single ad criticizing Edwards’s immigration policies (I’ll save that mess for another day), the candidates both gave up their high ground and started a race to the bottom. Edwards quickly fired back with an ad criticizing Taylor’s opposition (I think) to importing prescription drugs. I haven’t been able to find a definitive source that says Taylor opposes it, but Edwards supports it as stated in this AARP report, so it’s probably a safe assumption that Taylor is against it. Taylor does state that he wants prescription drug prices lowered, but the only method of lowering prices he explicitly states is to use Medicare’s buying power.

Of course, both sides claim it was the other that actually started the negative campaigning. Edwards says Taylor started it with the attack on his immigration policies. Taylor claims it was actually Edwards who started it by questioning various aspects of his past.

Taylor said nearly a year of Edwards’ criticism in news reports and press releases about his move to McLennan County in 2005, his family’s fortune in the oil business and the length of his service on the Mexican border as a U.S. Marine in 1997 forced him to question Edwards.

“It’s only natural to at some point respond to this continued drumbeat of mean-spirited attacks,” Taylor said. “He even belittled my service in the Marine Corps.”

Source: Waco Tribune-Herald 9/26/06

In response, the Edwards camp took an indirect shot at Taylor’s lack of time spent in Texas.

“Mr. Taylor can deny it as much as he wants,” said Edwards’ spokeswoman, Jessica Schafer. “But his false, negative campaign is clearly being encouraged by partisan Washington insiders who don’t know anything about the people of this district.”

Source: Waco Tribune-Herald 9/26/06

Furthermore, he claims that Taylor is trying to confuse the voters by misrepresenting Edwards’s position and voting on various issues.

Looks like its Taylor’s turn to fire back. Anyone care to guess what the subject of the next ad will be? Unfortunately I haven’t been able to track down any polling numbers, so the effect of these ads is still unknown.

Lying just west of Houston is the territory defined clearly and unmistakably as Texas’ 7th district.  Primarily white (67%), partially hispanic (18%), and little African-american (6%) and earning on average $57,846 yearly; $13,373 over the national average. Texans living in the 7th district will have an interesting time deciding who to vote for this November.  They must choose between the Republican incumbent John Culberson, or his Democratic opposition: Jim Henley.  Let’s start with the underdog.

Jim Henley has a strong background as an educator, 19 years and was voted Lanier Middle School Teacher of the year for 2005-2006 school year…if that’s not enough for Jim to earn your vote, he brings yet more to offer!  As you could imagine Jim is devoted to education and reforming the current education system.  He pines for more qualified teachers, and intends to achieve this by providing higher salaries for teachers to lure them in.  In to what exactly?  Voting for him most likely…OK enough with education.

The war in Iraq has spurred Jim on to make strong comments regarding the situation.  He has said that he has no support for the war and feels that American is now “less secure” since the invasion.  He feels that we have strengthened our enemies while diverting our own resources.  He is in strong support of a phased withdrawal including a set date that must be adhered to.  However, Jim isn’t against the War on Terror; he believes that we should be relocating troops from Iraq to the Afghanistan/ Pakistan border to eliminate the threat of Al-Qaeda.  He also believes that we should increase aid to Afghanistan to help them rebuild…but wait…he feels that we are strengthening our enemies and believes that Al-Qaeda is residing in Afghanistan, so why does he support this act?

In response to the current energy that is fuelling debates all over the country (but not in this district, but we’ll get to that later) Jim feels that there should be a higher standard for vehicle efficiency.  In a strange act to gain support Jim has said that he favors a tax credit for people who buy Hybrid vehicles…but wait, is this not Texas – the land of Hummers and Range Rovers?  Well, he supports the further research of alternative fuel sources and I’m sure that the drivers of these humungous S.U.V.’s will appreciate decreased fuel costs…

On another hot topic, possibly the hottest in Texas, Jim does NOT support illegal immigration.  It’s a bold stance, I know, but it’s just what he believes.  Jim has shown support for guest worker programs and programs for illegal immigrants to gain amnesty and citizenship.  Jim has stated his opposition to John Culbertson’s “simplistic solutions” such as constructing a 700 mile wall to help defend a 2000 mile border.  This is the first real shot at a conflict between the two…do I smell a debate?

Not a chance!  Jim Henley has invited John Culberson to debate publicly 6 times and John has denied him every time.  The Rice University College Democrats and College Republicans invited the two to debate and John accepted…as long as it wasn’t open to the press or public.  So much for that…

Moving on to the incumbent John Culberson it must be noted that he is a lifelong resident of the 7th district.  He was the third congressman to represent the 7th district, the first being none other than George H. W. Bush.  John runs behind the motto “Let Texans run Texas” and it seems to be working.  The New York Times shows him in the lead and lists this as a “safe republican” district.

John has strong feelings on the war in Iraq as well.  He says that he is proud of our troops and even goes so far as to say that he prays for their safe and speedy return.  Texans love praying don’t they?  That must be what put him in such a safe lead.  That must be why he doesn’t need to debate his opposition…

John removes all doubt and states that Tomas Jefferson is his hero and quotes him frequently while applying his beliefs to his own life.  Personally, I would feel much better voting for someone with such a reputable hero.

As far as immigration is concerned, John doesn’t support any guest worker programs or anything to provide support to illegal immigrants.  He reveals his soft side, however, when he says that he would allow them the opportunity to gain American citizenship…after being deported…and applying like everyone else…and being put at the end of the line…and waiting 11 years…

Although these two differ greatly on the immigration issue and even slightly on energy policies it doesn’t look promising to see a debate any time soon.  John’s calendar on his website is simply booked!  (For those of you who couldn’t detect the sarcasm in my voice while saying that aloud I’ll explain that John has nothing on his calendar.  On his own support website he has not a single event scheduled…at all)

And so, for all of you residing in the 7th district I leave the decision up to you…you have a formidable incumbent with 6 years experience and a middle school teacher of the year that conservatives seem to not even notice.

Sources:

NewYorkTimes.com

HenleyForCongress.com

CulbersonForCongress.com

CQ still says that D22 is “leaning Democrat,” the Times says that it’s a toss up, and TradeSports has Dems in the lead…not that the last of those three is an election authority, but still. Nice to know that everyone has no idea what the hell’s going on. I haven’t heard much hustle and bustle from either campaign, and the most recent statements have to do with either 9/11 (Sekula-Gibbs) or frickin outer space (Lampson). Productive. Especially since neither of these articles are good for Dems. If they prove to be true, of course. Come on, people, either start throwing verbal barbs at each other, or, since they are from Texas and might need something a bit more simplistic in order to get their message across, start wacking each other with blow-up hammers! Frickin go already before you put this Yankee to sleep!

Well, after a slight delay, I’m here to cover the District 17 House Election. Unlike the majority of the districts in Texas, District 17 has a slight Democratic lean with regards to the House. The incumbent, Chet Edwards, was first elected in 1991 to represent District 11. As a result of the now infamous Texas redistricting, as of 2005, Chet Edwards represents District 17. While not as strongly Democratic-leaning as the previous District 11, there is still a slight margin for the Democrats. Edwards was the only Democrat targeted by the redistricting to survive the 2004 reelection. The Republicans are trying very hard to correct that anomaly. Interestingly enough, President Bush’s Crawford ranch is located in District 17. I think its safe to say that he’s one definite vote against Chet.

The challenger is Van Taylor, an Iraqi war veteran. He graduated from Harvard in 1995 and completed his active duty service in the Marine Corps before returning to Harvard to complete a graduate degree. Following that he volunteered to serve in Iraq and is currently ranked a Major in the Marine Corps Reserves. The Republicans describe his as one of their “top recruits” and have high hopes that he will be able to defeat the incumbent.

As a result of the narrow 51% victory in 2004, both parties have been pulling out all the stops for this race. In fact, it is currently ranked the #9 House race with regards to money raised according to opensecrets.org. Edwards has raised $2,148,152 and spent $575,977 whereas Taylor has raised $1,658,461 and spent $1,204,007 as reported by the Washington Post. Dennis Hastert, the current Speaker of the House, also pledged his support for Taylor back in August, further demonstrating how much weight the Republicans are putting behind this campaign.

Despite all this effort by the Republicans, what was originally expected to be an extraordinarily close race has turned into a race with the Republicans a long shot at best. Taylor has been unable to shake accusations that he moved to the district in 2005 solely to run for Congress. Many of these accusations have been based on comments coming from the Republican Party itself. The Chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee, said that he had personally recruited Taylor to run against Edwards. Whether this recruitment occurred before or after his move to the district is up for debate. On the other hand, Edwards is a lifelong Texan. He was born in Texas, went to college at Texas A&M, and served in the Texas state legislature. Edwards also got a boost from a surprising source. Three different business groups which had opposed him in the 2004 election, pledged their support for him as reported by the Waco Tribune-Herald.

Additional Sources:

Taylor’s Residency Issues – Waco Tribune-Herald

Chet Edwards – Wikipedia

Van Taylor – Wikipedia

Neither candidate has done much of anything as of late. Lots of the normal talking crap, no big stand (especially on President Bush’s address this past Monday), and random stuffy releases about the passing of x and the $y million smear campaign…man. I kind of figured that immigration would be big on the Texas agenda (reinforced by the practically jumping house representative today from Texas that was talking about a fence on C-SPAN), but…NASA?

NASA has provided our nation with research and innovation that goes beyond space flight and exploration and extends into our everyday lives. Nearly all Americans have advanced technology and products in their home today that were pioneered by NASA programs. NASA also provides valuable information regarding our planet’s environmental trends. We must ensure that the American public understands how important NASA’s work is for all of us. And we must ensure that the American people understand that our technological edge in the world is largely due to the work done at NASA. To abandon NASA or even allow it to be under-funded is to abandon our leadership role in technology.

(Official Lampson website)

Uhhhh, guess I must have missed a memo or something. Apparently the Republicans like NASA too.

Long standing advocate for NASA/JSC – Supports the President’s vision for space exploration

I mean, yeah, it makes sense, since Johnson Space Center is in District 22, but…wtflip. I wonder if the Kennedy Space Center is causing pseudo-ripples like this in its district election. It just seems awfully random for an election year where so much CRAP is going on in the world. Just…bah. I can’t say anything else really productive about this, I’m still just sort of in a moron-induced stupor…which isn’t made any better by this profound statement from one of our fine candidates:

Space exploration is at the heart of NASA.

Huh, you think?

Hello everyone, Bryan Comer here.

I thought that’d I’d educate all y’all (as they say in Texas) on the House of Representatives race in Texas’ 23rd district. The current Representative is Republican Henry Bonilla.

This district is the largest in Texas and includes most of Texas’ border with Mexico. It is mainly rural and the major economic activites in the district include farming, ranching, and oil and mineral extraction.

Anyways, here’s what’s going on:

Back in 2003 Texas decided to do a little redistricting. After redistricting, the 23rd picked up some very Repbulican suburbs of San Antonio (good for Bonilla). All was fine and dandy until June 28, 2006 when the U.S. Supreme Court declared that Texas had violated the Voting Rights Act when it drew in most of Laredo, TX. The court decided that this diluted the vote of hispanics.

Now What?

On August 4, 2006 a 3 judge panel proclaimed that Texas replace the district boundaries for the 2006 election. Bonilla lost the republican suburbs of San Antonio as well as Laredo and was thrilled (well, probably not) to learn that he’d pick up a substantial portion of democratic south San Antonio (Bad for Bonilla).

So what does this mean for the upcoming election? Good question!

Instead of holding the general election on November 7, 2006, the 23rd will hold an open primary. If any candidate receives more than 50% of the vote they win the seat and that’s that. But, if that doesn’t happen, the top two vote-getters will have a run-off election in December for the seat (yup, that’s probably what’s going to happen).

But why Bryan? Why won’t Bonilla get at least 50% of the votes?

Bonilla’s the man and all (being the incumbent helps) but he does have two serious democratic contenders for his seat. One is Vietnam War veteran Rick Bolanos (Texans like anything to do with the military right?… only kidding…sorta), and the other is former congressman of the 28th district Ciro Rodriguez (the dems best chance).

Any others?

Eh, yeah but I mean you’ve got a Fireman, a Rancher, a Truck Stop Owner, and some dude from San Antonio, so they don’t count.

According to a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey of 405 likely voters conducted August 10-15, they give Bonilla 44% and the democrats combined 47% of the primary vote with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

So there you have it, it should be an interesting race to keep an eye on and I will keep everyone up to date on the latest poll results, and, of course, rumors.

Most of my information I was able to find on Wikipedia. The direct link is as follows:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_23rd_congressional_district