Texas: General Elections 2006

Well, its official, Edwards has proven that his winning the election in 2004 was not a fluke. He has proven himself a strong enough candidate to overcome the advantage given to the Republicans by the infamous gerrymandering. In fact, this year’s race wasn’t even close. Republicans all but conceded the race and withdrew funds around a month ago, leaving the man they once called “on of their most promising prospects” to finish out the election on his own. Edwards won by a whopping 18 points (58% to 40% according to CNN), which certainly isn’t as close as the Republicans thought it would be a few months ago. So it seems President Bush’s ranch will remain painted blue for at least another two years.

The bad news just keeps pouring in for Van Taylor. It appears his finances are running dry as he had to loan his campaign $200,000 of his own money. This comes after the national Republican committee decided to withdraw funds for a television advertising campaign. Reports stated that the NRCC had been planning to contribute $1.5 million in ads to Taylor’s campaign. The funds were withdrawn a week after the NRCC had conducted a poll, which most likely means they are conceding the race.

Taylor, who has already loaned his campaign $300,000, has raised nearly $2 million so far but had only $102,500 cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

Edwards, 54, has raised more than $2.8 million and had more than $1.1 million cash on hand as of Sept. 30, according to FEC reports.

Source:Waco Tribune-Herald

Taylor of course denies that he’s having financial and polling problems, and instead insists that he has more than enough funds to finish the race. He also claims his internal polls show the race is still very tight, but does not release any numbers. That same article also points out the Edwards recently gained the endorsement of several Mayors in Johnson county, giving him yet another boost.

Continuing with the good news for Edwards, CQ Politics upgraded TX17 from “Leans Democratic” to “Democratic Favored.” Also, in what is good news in a weird way, the DCCC has also pulled funding from the campaign, indicating that they too believe that the race is a sure thing.

And finally, while it seems like a pointless endeavour at this point, the second debate was held between the two candidates.  The two major issues were the war in Iraq and stem cell research.  Both are committed to the war, but Edwards feels the Iraqi government needs to step up and take responsibility immediately.  Taylor, on the other hand, feels this view neglects the sacrifice the Iraqi’s have endured in their path to becoming a democratic nation.  Taylor is against all forms of embryonic stem cell research because he feels that human lives are being destroyed.  Edwards claims that supporting the funding is actually a pro-life position because of the huge number of lives that could be saved.  Beyond those two issues was just the standard bickering between the two that has become the norm.

The next, and probably final debate will be on Halloween.  Taylor needs nothing short of a miracle to bring him back into the race at this point.

Well, its been just over a week since the two candidates held their first debate. Both had expressed their interest in discussing immigration issues:

Top issue: Immigration

Both candidates eagerly await the chance to discuss illegal immigration as Taylor tries to portray Edwards as “weak” on the issue, and Edwards attempts to trumpet what he calls more than a decade of “clear, consistent” support for “strong” immigration reform.

~ Waco Tribune-Herald 10/07/06

The issues actually discussed during the the debate: negative campaigning and unpaid taxes, of course. Leading up to and during the debate, Edwards repeatedly asked Taylor to pledge to show only positive ads for the remainder of the campaign. Taylor declined, and I’ll let him explain his reasons:

Taylor said that tactic would clearly benefit the incumbent, and refused, saying Edwards is acting like a “school-yard bully” with years of ordering others around.

Taylor’s campaign manager, Casey Phillips, likens Taylor’s stance to “when a little kid refuses to give up his lunch money and fights back.”

~ Waco Tribune-Herald 10/07/06

I guess there was an issue discussed during the debate then: Taylor is against school-yard bullies.

The next bombshell was dropped by Taylor when he claimed that Edwards was on the board of a seafood company that owed the state of Texas over $6000 in unpaid taxes. The company was started in 1979 by Chet’s brother, and went out of business back in 1985. Yes, that’s right, Taylor dug through 27 years of financial records to find this little tidbit. Now that’s dedication, or maybe its desperation. One of the two. Anyway, a few days later, a better explanation of what happened was offered by Edwards. When the company closed in 1985, his brother failed to properly close the business with respect to the government. As a result, it had been accumulating a $68 franchise tax plus interest each year. Furthermore, he stated that Taylor had grossly overstated the amount owed and that he in fact only owed a little over $2000. He also claimed that his brother would pay off the amount by the end of the week. Source:Waco Tribune-Herald 10/10/06

The candidates did accidentally slip up and cover a few real issues. Both claimed the other is weak on illegal immigration. Edwards attacked Taylor for not wanting to raise minimum wage. Taylor attacked Edwards for fighting against prayer in schools. To summarize their respective positions:

Edwards said he has fought to keep open the Waco Veterans Affairs Hospital, secured funding for businesses and parks throughout the district and will keep fighting for homeland security, Social Security and stopping illegal immigration.

Taylor said he represents the values of central Texans: lower taxes, less government spending, traditional families values, gun rights and being tough on illegal immigration. He urged voters to send the first Iraq war veteran to Congress.

~Waco Tribune-Herald 10/15/06

Taylor has also been receiving a steady stream of bad news in the general campaign. Democrats are reporting that Edwards has $1.1 million in cash on hand compared to Taylor’s $102,500. Also, in contrast to the last three years, the NRA has decided not to endorse either candidate. In the past it has supported the Republican challenger to Edwards.

The final blow to Taylor has been the publication of two polls. First, Edwards published parts of his own internal polling that gave him a 54% to 33% lead over Taylor. Taylor claims the poll is biased and that his internal polls show the gap to be much closer, yet he declined to release the actual numbers. Finally, an RT Strategies poll from October 10 gives a 55% to 38% lead to Edwards.

Things aren’t looking good for Taylor, and time is running out. There are more debates scheduled following the October 23 early voting.

It’s been a quiet week for the most part; only two major issues have cropped up. As with every election, this one too has descended into a battle of negative ads and mudslinging. Both sides started off taking the moral high ground with Edwards showing how much work he has done for the district and Taylor touting his military record. Needless to say, that strategy didn’t last long.

With one single ad criticizing Edwards’s immigration policies (I’ll save that mess for another day), the candidates both gave up their high ground and started a race to the bottom. Edwards quickly fired back with an ad criticizing Taylor’s opposition (I think) to importing prescription drugs. I haven’t been able to find a definitive source that says Taylor opposes it, but Edwards supports it as stated in this AARP report, so it’s probably a safe assumption that Taylor is against it. Taylor does state that he wants prescription drug prices lowered, but the only method of lowering prices he explicitly states is to use Medicare’s buying power.

Of course, both sides claim it was the other that actually started the negative campaigning. Edwards says Taylor started it with the attack on his immigration policies. Taylor claims it was actually Edwards who started it by questioning various aspects of his past.

Taylor said nearly a year of Edwards’ criticism in news reports and press releases about his move to McLennan County in 2005, his family’s fortune in the oil business and the length of his service on the Mexican border as a U.S. Marine in 1997 forced him to question Edwards.

“It’s only natural to at some point respond to this continued drumbeat of mean-spirited attacks,” Taylor said. “He even belittled my service in the Marine Corps.”

Source: Waco Tribune-Herald 9/26/06

In response, the Edwards camp took an indirect shot at Taylor’s lack of time spent in Texas.

“Mr. Taylor can deny it as much as he wants,” said Edwards’ spokeswoman, Jessica Schafer. “But his false, negative campaign is clearly being encouraged by partisan Washington insiders who don’t know anything about the people of this district.”

Source: Waco Tribune-Herald 9/26/06

Furthermore, he claims that Taylor is trying to confuse the voters by misrepresenting Edwards’s position and voting on various issues.

Looks like its Taylor’s turn to fire back. Anyone care to guess what the subject of the next ad will be? Unfortunately I haven’t been able to track down any polling numbers, so the effect of these ads is still unknown.

Well, after a slight delay, I’m here to cover the District 17 House Election. Unlike the majority of the districts in Texas, District 17 has a slight Democratic lean with regards to the House. The incumbent, Chet Edwards, was first elected in 1991 to represent District 11. As a result of the now infamous Texas redistricting, as of 2005, Chet Edwards represents District 17. While not as strongly Democratic-leaning as the previous District 11, there is still a slight margin for the Democrats. Edwards was the only Democrat targeted by the redistricting to survive the 2004 reelection. The Republicans are trying very hard to correct that anomaly. Interestingly enough, President Bush’s Crawford ranch is located in District 17. I think its safe to say that he’s one definite vote against Chet.

The challenger is Van Taylor, an Iraqi war veteran. He graduated from Harvard in 1995 and completed his active duty service in the Marine Corps before returning to Harvard to complete a graduate degree. Following that he volunteered to serve in Iraq and is currently ranked a Major in the Marine Corps Reserves. The Republicans describe his as one of their “top recruits” and have high hopes that he will be able to defeat the incumbent.

As a result of the narrow 51% victory in 2004, both parties have been pulling out all the stops for this race. In fact, it is currently ranked the #9 House race with regards to money raised according to opensecrets.org. Edwards has raised $2,148,152 and spent $575,977 whereas Taylor has raised $1,658,461 and spent $1,204,007 as reported by the Washington Post. Dennis Hastert, the current Speaker of the House, also pledged his support for Taylor back in August, further demonstrating how much weight the Republicans are putting behind this campaign.

Despite all this effort by the Republicans, what was originally expected to be an extraordinarily close race has turned into a race with the Republicans a long shot at best. Taylor has been unable to shake accusations that he moved to the district in 2005 solely to run for Congress. Many of these accusations have been based on comments coming from the Republican Party itself. The Chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee, said that he had personally recruited Taylor to run against Edwards. Whether this recruitment occurred before or after his move to the district is up for debate. On the other hand, Edwards is a lifelong Texan. He was born in Texas, went to college at Texas A&M, and served in the Texas state legislature. Edwards also got a boost from a surprising source. Three different business groups which had opposed him in the 2004 election, pledged their support for him as reported by the Waco Tribune-Herald.

Additional Sources:

Taylor’s Residency Issues – Waco Tribune-Herald

Chet Edwards – Wikipedia

Van Taylor – Wikipedia