Texas: General Elections 2006

by Bryan Comer

In Texas’ 23rd district, the incumbent Henry Bonilla failed to receive 50% of the vote.  The second most vote-getter was Ciro Rodriguez.  Therefore, as I predicted, there will be a run-off election on December 7, 2006.

I have no doubt that Bonilla will win the district, but at least he’s getting a run for his money.

by Bryan Comer

So Ricky decided to post segments of a televised debate on his website. Now, if I was him, I’d make myself look good… but ya know, that’s just me.

Here’s the link by the way: http://rickbolanosfortexas.com/

So first, the moderator refers to him as republican. That’s excellent for a democratic candidate don’t you think?

Anyways, he starts off OK. On Iraq, he says that we must stand down in order for Iraqi’s to stand up. If we don’t stand down they have no incentive to risk their lives to secure their country. He does say that Iraqi’s should be paying the ultimate price for their freedom, not Americans. That probably goes over well in his district.

He attempts to link incumbant Henry Bonilla to the White House. He says that Bonills cares about “corporate wealth” instead of “commonwealth.” And that we need a “transparent government” that everyone can see what’s going on behind the scenes. He even goes as far to claim that appealing to interest group pressures is the same as “prostitution of our nation to the highest bidder.”

Doing OK so far, maybe a little risque with the prostitution theme, but ok.

Now’s where things get interesting. Bolanos is asked a question regarding illegal immigration; given that the 23rd district is a border district. Here’s how he explains the problem:

“My Dad used to tell me that, if you give a donkey a carrot and let him taste it, and then put the donkey’s head toward a carrot – hang the carrot right in front of it, the donkey will start running after that carrot because it has that desire to get that carrot.”

He equates the carrot to jobs in the U.S. and, by default, defines the donkey as Mexicans.

I’m shaking my head right now…

Why would you equate Mexican’s to donkeys? Why, why, why? The 23rd is 55% Hispanic. This is a very big mistake. What’s better, is that his solution to the “donkey problem” is getting rid of jobs in the U.S. so that people from Mexico wouldn’t want to come here anymore. He wants to “take away the carrot.”

Does anyone think he won over his district? Me neither.

by Bryan Comer

A survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on Sept. 21 tracked the issues concerning rural voters in competitive congressional districts throughout the country including Texas’ 23rd.(http://www.greenbergresearch.com/index.php?ID=1790)

Here’s what they found:

• Democrats and Republicans split rural voters evenly
• Key issues will be:
  • The War in Iraq
  • The Economy
  • The War on Terror
  • National Security
• Approx. 3/4 of rural voters know someone who is or has served in Iraq
• A majority favor a plan to pull out of Iraq within the coming year
• Dems have advantage on the issue of the War in Iraq
• Republicans have advantage on the issue of the War on Terror

Now. let’s see what our two leading candidates think about a few of the issues important to rural voters.

The War in Iraq:

Bonilla: essentially, stay the course. The US has an obligation to quell the threat of terrorism in the Middle East. (consistent with most other republican party members and the president)

http://bonilla.house.gov/

Rodriguez: it doesn’t say anything about it on his website but he did vote NO in 2002 on authorizing military action in Iraq, but YES in 2004 to remove Saddam and send in troops. (Not making this a key focus may hurt him, this is where he could have picked up some ground.)

http://www.ontheissues.org/TX/Ciro_Rodriguez.htm#War_+_Peace

The Economy:

Bonilla:  Bonilla emphasizes the importance of small business, “Small business is the backbone of our communities, the brain of our nation’s economy and the heart of American culture” (Sounds alot like a push for privatization)

Rodriguez:  Rodriguez is focusing on commerce along the border (which makes sense given the districts location… on the border). He supports a federal program called the Community Adjustment and Investment Program (CAIP) which is a loan program to help communities along the border struggling with the trade impacts of NAFTA. This program creates “jobs and stuff” is basically what Rodriguez is pushing. (Sounds a lot like expansion of federal government but does appeal to the unemployed which tend to be dems)

The War on Terror:

Bonilla: He thinks that we should “coordinate and focus our government-wide efforts to combat terrorism.” This essentially means that we should continue to provide support financially and militarily to persue terrorists.

Rodriguez: (I’m shaking my head right now) Why don’t you put this stuff on your website Ciro??? Anyways, he’s a democrat so I’ll assume that he wants to “cut and run” as the republicans would say.

National Security:

Bonilla: He says that, “The tragic attack on the United States on September 11, 2001, ongoing terrorist attacks in the Middle East and periodic terrorist alerts here at home have forever changed the way Americans view their security. No longer can anyone claim that instability and violence in other parts of the world have no effect on us.” So he wants to make sure we stay safe at home by furthering our efforts in Iraq.

Rodriguez: Since this is such an important issue I’m sure Ciro Rodriguez will have an opinion. Damn, nope, he doesn’t even mention it.

Allright, I’ve had about enough of this. Rodriguez isn’t getting a whole lot of rural voters. Bonilla at least deals with all of these issues on his website. I think it’s safe to assume that Bonilla will pull rural voters and Rodriguez will either have to start dealing with the “key issues” or, well… give up. The war in Iraq is a huge issue, it should be a focus for any candidate who actually wants to win.

I’m calling it right now, Bonilla is the overall winner of this district in a special election on December 7th.

Hello everyone, Bryan Comer here.

I thought that’d I’d educate all y’all (as they say in Texas) on the House of Representatives race in Texas’ 23rd district. The current Representative is Republican Henry Bonilla.

This district is the largest in Texas and includes most of Texas’ border with Mexico. It is mainly rural and the major economic activites in the district include farming, ranching, and oil and mineral extraction.

Anyways, here’s what’s going on:

Back in 2003 Texas decided to do a little redistricting. After redistricting, the 23rd picked up some very Repbulican suburbs of San Antonio (good for Bonilla). All was fine and dandy until June 28, 2006 when the U.S. Supreme Court declared that Texas had violated the Voting Rights Act when it drew in most of Laredo, TX. The court decided that this diluted the vote of hispanics.

Now What?

On August 4, 2006 a 3 judge panel proclaimed that Texas replace the district boundaries for the 2006 election. Bonilla lost the republican suburbs of San Antonio as well as Laredo and was thrilled (well, probably not) to learn that he’d pick up a substantial portion of democratic south San Antonio (Bad for Bonilla).

So what does this mean for the upcoming election? Good question!

Instead of holding the general election on November 7, 2006, the 23rd will hold an open primary. If any candidate receives more than 50% of the vote they win the seat and that’s that. But, if that doesn’t happen, the top two vote-getters will have a run-off election in December for the seat (yup, that’s probably what’s going to happen).

But why Bryan? Why won’t Bonilla get at least 50% of the votes?

Bonilla’s the man and all (being the incumbent helps) but he does have two serious democratic contenders for his seat. One is Vietnam War veteran Rick Bolanos (Texans like anything to do with the military right?… only kidding…sorta), and the other is former congressman of the 28th district Ciro Rodriguez (the dems best chance).

Any others?

Eh, yeah but I mean you’ve got a Fireman, a Rancher, a Truck Stop Owner, and some dude from San Antonio, so they don’t count.

According to a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey of 405 likely voters conducted August 10-15, they give Bonilla 44% and the democrats combined 47% of the primary vote with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

So there you have it, it should be an interesting race to keep an eye on and I will keep everyone up to date on the latest poll results, and, of course, rumors.

Most of my information I was able to find on Wikipedia. The direct link is as follows:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas%27s_23rd_congressional_district